GrayHouse Poll: Ricketts Leads in Nebraska by 4
Republican Senator Pete Ricketts leads independent Dan Osborn 50% to 46%, including leaners, in GrayHouse’s final Nebraska U.S. Senate poll. On the initial ballot, Ricketts leads 48% to 44%, with 5% undecided. Mike Marvin, Robin Richards and Chuck Conboy each receive 1%.
The survey of 534 likely voters was conducted October 29–November 1, 2026. The margin of error is ±4.2 percentage points. GrayHouse funded this poll as part of its public polling of the Iowa and Nebraska U.S. Senate races.
Download the toplines:
Including leaners, Ricketts receives 78% of registered Republicans’ support, while Osborn receives 92% among registered Democrats. Osborn leads 64% to 33% among unaffiliated and other registrants.
Registered Republicans make up 55% of the weighted electorate, Democrats 28%, and unaffiliated or other voters 17%. Ricketts’s advantage among the larger Republican bloc offsets Osborn’s leads among Democrats and unaffiliated voters.
Trump’s job rating is 46% approve and 52% disapprove.
On the initial ballot, Ricketts draws stronger support among men, older voters and those without a four-year college degree. Men favor him 53% to 40%, while women favor Osborn 47% to 44%.
The age divide is larger. Ricketts leads 59% to 35% among voters 65 and older and 54% to 40% among those ages 55–64. Those two groups make up 56% of the weighted electorate. Osborn leads 53% to 39% among voters ages 45–54 and 46% to 44% among those ages 30–44. His 68% to 14% lead among 18–29-year-olds comes from a small subgroup and is less precise.
Education divides the electorate, too: Ricketts leads 52% to 39% among voters without a four-year degree, while Osborn leads 51% to 43% among those with one. Voters without a four-year degree make up 59% of the weighted electorate.
Osborn leads 53% to 47% among voters who say they have already voted, while Ricketts leads 49% to 40% among those who plan to vote. These comparisons also use the initial ballot; voting status is self-reported.
Methodology
Interview dates: October 29–November 1, 2026. Target population: Likely voters in Nebraska. Number of respondents: 534.
Sampling method: Voter-file sample of registered voters in Nebraska; interviews completed by SMS text-to-web and live telephone calls to cell phones and landlines.
Weighting: Weighted to reflect the modeled likely November 2026 electorate in Nebraska. The weights balance gender, age, race, region, urbanicity, party registration and 2024 presidential vote (Trump 56%, Harris 40%). Final weights are calibrated to GrayHouse’s political engagement model, so that voters across the full range of turnout propensity are represented in their expected share of the electorate.
Counts shown in tables are rounded weighted counts; percentages and breakouts are weighted.
Margin of error: ±4.2% at 95% confidence. Uncertainty is greater within subgroups.
Survey modes: SMS text-to-web: 60% (n=318); live-to-cell: 31% (n=166); live-to-landline: 9% (n=50).
