Arkansas Senate: Cotton Leads by 16

23 minutes ago

2 min read

Arkansas · U.S. Senate · October 29, 2026

A GrayHouse survey of 509 likely November 2026 general election voters in Arkansas, conducted October 27 to 28, finds Senator Tom Cotton entering Election Day with a commanding lead over Democrat Hallie Shoffner: 55% to 39% with leaners, and 51% to 37% on the first ballot, with Libertarian Jeff Wadlin at 4% and 8% undecided.

Arkansas Senate ballot: Cotton leads Shoffner 55% to 39% with leaners on October 28, compared with 51% to 40% on October 4. First ballot: Cotton 51%, Shoffner 37%, Wadlin 4%, undecided 8%.

Arkansas Senate, October 27–28, 2026. With leaners: Cotton 55%, Shoffner 39%, Wadlin 4%. First ballot: Cotton 51%, Shoffner 37%, Wadlin 4%, undecided 8%.

First ballot and with leaners · GrayHouse surveys completed October 4 and October 28, 2026.

Toplines:

Memo:

Cotton’s numbers improve as Republicans come home

Cotton's numbers are improving into the close: with leaners, his lead has grown from 11 points to 16 since GrayHouse's survey completed October 4, as Republicans come home and the voters still undecided lean his way. Arkansas is a Republican state, and the vote still to be decided leans Republican.

With leaners, Cotton leads 55% to 39%, compared to 51% to 40% in GrayHouse's survey completed October 4: an 11-point lead then, 16 points today. On the first ballot he leads 51% to 37%, with Wadlin at 4% and 8% undecided, up from 50% to 39% on October 4. Republicans and Trump voters are coming home: he holds 89% of Republicans, up from 86% on October 4, and 82% of voters who backed President Trump in 2024.

The undecided vote leans Republican

The 8% of voters still undecided for U.S. Senate voted for President Trump in 2024 by 70% to 12%, and only 17% of them call themselves Democrats: 24% are Republicans and 60% are independents. 52% of them approve of the job President Trump is doing, compared to 29% who disapprove. The undecided vote leaves Shoffner little room to grow.

Among voters undecided for U.S. Senate, 70% recall voting for Trump in 2024, 12% for Harris, and 18% someone else, did not vote or are not sure.

2024 presidential vote recall among voters undecided for U.S. Senate.

Heading into the final days

Cotton enters Election Day with a commanding lead and improving numbers into the close: 55% to 39% with leaners, 51% to 37% on the first ballot, up from an 11-point lead on October 4 as Republicans come home. The voters still undecided chose Trump in 2024 by 70% to 12%, and fewer than one in five of them is a Democrat. He goes into the final days ahead by double digits in a Republican state, with the undecided vote leaning his way.

About the survey

509 likely voters · October 27–28, 2026 · ±4.3 points at 95% confidence

GrayHouse surveyed likely November 2026 general election voters statewide in Arkansas using a voter-file sample of registered voters. Interviews were conducted by SMS text-to-web (60%), live calls to cell phones (35%) and live calls to landlines (5%).

Results were weighted to reflect the expected electorate, balancing gender, age, race, media market, party identification and 2024 presidential vote (Trump 60%, Harris 35%), along with other demographic and partisan characteristics. Final weights were calibrated to GrayHouse’s political engagement modeling, which aligns the sample with expected turnout behavior.