GrayHouse Poll: Hinson Leads in Iowa by 2
Republican Ashley Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turek 48% to 46% in GrayHouse’s final Iowa U.S. Senate poll. Libertarian Thomas Laehn receives 2%, while 4% are undecided. These are the initial ballot results.
Hinson’s narrow statewide advantage rests on stronger support among voters who have yet to cast a ballot. She leads 51% to 40% among those who plan to vote, while Turek leads 56% to 42% among those who say they have already voted. Higher Election Day turnout would strengthen Hinson’s position if those voters support her by a similar double-digit margin.
The survey of 601 likely voters was conducted October 28–31, 2026. Hinson’s two-point lead is within the survey’s ±4.0 percentage-point margin of error. GrayHouse funded this poll as part of its public polling of the Iowa and Nebraska U.S. Senate races.
Download the toplines:
Turek leads 49% to 39% among unaffiliated registrants and 58% to 36% among self-identified independents. Hinson receives 90% of registered Republicans’ support and 94% among Republican identifiers; Turek receives 91% among registered Democrats and 92% among Democratic identifiers.
Registered Republicans make up 42% of the weighted electorate, Democrats 35%, and unaffiliated or other voters 24%. Registration comes from the voter file; party identification is self-reported.
Thirty-seven percent of the weighted sample said they had already voted; 63% planned to vote. The plan-to-vote group includes all respondents who had not yet voted, regardless of when they intend to cast a ballot.
Methodology
Interview dates: October 28–31, 2026. Target population: Likely voters in Iowa. Number of respondents: 601.
Sampling method: Voter-file sample of registered voters in Iowa; interviews completed by SMS text-to-web and live telephone calls to cell phones and landlines.
Weighting: Weighted to reflect the modeled likely November 2026 electorate in Iowa. The weights balance gender, age, race, region, urban, suburban and rural community, party registration and 2024 presidential vote (Trump 54%, Harris 43%). Final weights are calibrated to GrayHouse’s political engagement model, so that voters across the full range of turnout propensity are represented in their expected share of the electorate.
Counts shown in tables are rounded weighted counts; percentages and breakouts are weighted.
Margin of error: ±4.0% at 95% confidence. Uncertainty is greater within subgroups.
Survey modes: SMS text-to-web: 62% (n=375); live-to-cell: 30% (n=183); live-to-landline: 7% (n=43).
