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GrayHouse Montana Senate Poll Featured in Inside Elections

  • 3 hours ago
  • 1 min read

GrayHouse polling on the 2026 Montana Senate race was featured this week in Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, in reporting by Deputy Editor Jacob Rubashkin.

Our self-funded survey, fielded June 23 and 24 among 500 likely voters using a combined live-caller and text-to-web design, found Republican Kurt Alme leading the open-seat race with 41 percent. Democrat Alani Bankhead followed at 25 percent, independent Seth Bodnar at 17 percent, and Libertarian Kyle Austin at 3 percent.



The numbers describe a race that looks very different from the independent-driven contests Democrats have used to compete in red states. Bankhead is consolidating the Democratic vote, taking 60 percent of Democrats to Bodnar's 28 percent, and she leads the independent outright among all likely voters, 25 to 17. That distinction matters. In Nebraska, Dan Osborn made an independent bid competitive by clearing the field and forcing a one-on-one race against the Republican, with no Democrat on the ballot. Montana is not that situation. A funded Democrat remains in the contest, siphoning off anti-Alme votes, and Bodnar is currently running behind her. For all his fundraising, the independent here has shown far less of the dynamism that made Osborn a genuine threat, and he has no obvious path so long as a Democrat continues to split the opposition.


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