Arizona 2026 Statewide Elections - Republican Opportunities Across the Ballot
- Landon Wall
- 2 hours ago
- 5 min read
From: Landon Wall
Date: November 6th, 2025
Survey Dates: October 26-28, 2025
A new GrayHouse poll reveals a highly competitive Arizona political landscape favoring Republicans across the 2026 statewide ballot. The October 2025 survey of 744 registered voters and 397 likely GOP primary voters finds generic Republican candidates leading or running even with Democratic incumbents across all five statewide executive offices tested, driven by voter concerns about the economy, affordability, and Arizona's declining job growth under Democratic leadership.
Full toplines here:
Key Findings
Republicans Lead Across the Statewide Ballot
Generic Republican candidates lead Governor Katie Hobbs by 4 points (44%-40%), lead for Secretary of State by 4 points (44%-40%), and lead for Treasurer by 6 points (42%-36%). Republicans run even with Democratic incumbents for Attorney General (41%-40%). Despite facing four incumbent Democrats, Republicans lead in every matchup tested.
Republicans Hold Decisive Advantages on Key Voter Concerns
Voters trust Republicans over Democrats to handle border security and immigration (+30 points), crime and public safety (+26 points), taxes (+10 points), jobs and the economy (+6 points), and the state budget and government spending (+6 points). Affordability and cost of living tops the issue priority list at 29%, followed by threats to democracy (17%) and border security (16%).
Arizonans Believe the State is Headed in the Wrong Direction
52% say Arizona is on the wrong track compared to just 25% who say the state is heading in the right direction. Only 43% of voters support re-electing Governor Hobbs compared to 48% who believe it's "time for someone new."
Arizona's Affordability and Jobs Crisis Creates Opening for Republicans
Arizona has plummeted from 3rd in the nation for job growth to 47th under Governor Hobbs. Housing prices have surged 55% since 2019, dramatically outpacing wage growth. Housing construction has slowed to the lowest pace since 2019, and the Hobbs administration has imposed policies halting new home construction in large portions of Maricopa County all while Arizona experiences record evictions and only 39% of workers at median wage can afford a one-bedroom apartment.
Generic Ballot: Republicans Lead Across All Statewide Offices
Republicans Trusted More on Key Issues Driving Arizona Voters
The Affordability Opportunity
While Democrats currently lead Republicans 40%-32% on handling affordability and the cost of living, this represents Republicans' single biggest opportunity heading into 2026. Arizona's affordability crisis was created under Democratic leadership: housing prices up 55% since 2019, job growth collapsed from 3rd to 47th nationally, record evictions, and Hobbs administration policies that halted new housing construction across Maricopa County.
Republicans hold decisive advantages on every economic policy lever that drives affordability: jobs and the economy (+6), taxes (+10), and government spending (+6). The challenge for Republican candidates is connecting these advantages to the affordability issue itself by educating voters about how Katie Hobbs' specific policies have caused the crisis families face daily.
Wrong Track Numbers Create Headwinds for Democrats
Arizonans express deep dissatisfaction with the state's direction under Democratic leadership. 52% say Arizona is on the wrong track compared to just 25% who say the state is heading in the right direction (22% don't know). Among independents, 51% say wrong track versus 22% right direction.
This negative sentiment translates directly to Governor Katie Hobbs' re-election prospects. Only 43% of voters support re-electing Hobbs compared to 48% who believe it's "time for someone new" (9% undecided). Among independents, this metric is tied at 42%-42%.
Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Andy Biggs Commands the Field
Representative Andy Biggs has a 24-point lead in the Republican primary for Governor. GrayHouse's findings are consistent with multiple high-quality surveys throughout 2025 showing Biggs with overwhelming strength among Republican primary voters. The consistency across high-quality polls demonstrates Biggs has consolidated the Republican base and established a clear path to the nomination.
Other polling shows Biggs positioned to compete effectively in a general election. Pulse Decision Science polling (April 2025) shows Biggs trailing Hobbs 42%-46%, within the ±4.4% margin of error—representing a 5-point improvement over Karrin Taylor Robson. Combined with generic Republicans leading Hobbs 44%-40% in the GrayHouse poll, this suggests Biggs would enter the general election positioned to compete in a favorable Republican environment.
Attorney General Primary: Warren Peterson Opens Large Lead After Voters Read Bios
GrayHouse polling tested the Republican primary for Attorney General both before and after voters learned biographical information about the candidates:
After voters learned that Peterson is the current Senate President with deep Arizona roots and legislative experience, while Glassman is a former Democrat who switched parties in 2015 and subsequently lost three consecutive elections (2018, 2020, 2022), Peterson's support tripled from 16% to 48%, opening a 33-point lead. This dramatic shift proves State Senate President Warren Peterson is well positioned to win the GOP primary and would be in a favorable position to face Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes, who trails a generic Republican in general election polling.
Republican Registration Advantage Has More Than Doubled Since 2022
Official voter registration data from the Arizona Secretary of State shows a dramatic shift in party registration since the 2022 midterm cycle:
The Republican registration advantage has more than doubled from +132,106 voters to +333,255 voters, representing a +4.4 percentage point shift in the two-party registration share. Democrats have lost 102,998 registered voters (-7.5%) while Republicans have gained 98,151 voters (+6.5%).
Bottom Line
Republicans lead across the ballot. Generic Republican candidates lead Governor Hobbs 44%-40%, lead for Secretary of State 44%-40%, lead for Treasurer 42%-36%, and run even for Attorney General 41%-40%—leading every statewide matchup despite facing four incumbent Democrats.
Arizona's economic collapse under Hobbs. The state plummeted from 3rd to 47th in job growth, losing 8,400 jobs in a single month. Housing prices surged 55% since 2019 while wages increased just 2.5%. Record evictions (106,587 in 2024), housing construction halted by Hobbs administration policies, and only 39% of median-wage workers can afford a one-bedroom apartment.
Republicans dominate on voter priorities. Commanding advantages on border security (+30), crime (+26), taxes (+10), jobs and the economy (+6), and government spending (+6). Democrats lead on affordability 40%-32%, but Republicans can close the gap by connecting Hobbs' 424 vetoes, housing freeze, and job growth collapse to rising costs.
Decisive wrong-track environment. 52% say Arizona is on the wrong track versus 25% right direction. Only 43% support re-electing Hobbs; 48% want "someone new." Among independents, tied 42%-42%.
Republicans consolidate structural advantages. Registration advantage more than doubled since 2022 (from +132,106 to +333,255). Democrats lost 102,998 voters (-7.5%); Republicans gained 98,151 (+6.5%). Biggs leads gubernatorial primary 43%-19%. Peterson leads Attorney General primary 48%-15% after biographical testing.
Methodology
Survey Dates: October 26-28, 2025
Sample Size: 744 Arizona registered voters (general election); 397 likely GOP primary voters
Margin of Error: ±3.6% (general election); ±4.9% (GOP primary)
Survey Method: Mixed-mode design combining SMS text-to-web invitations (60%) and live interviewer calls (40%)