Axios: GrayHouse Poll for Senate GOP Shows Voters Persuadable on ACA Subsidies

Read the Article: https://www.axios.com/2025/12/11/republican-polling-aca-subsidies

With ACA tax credits set to expire, GrayHouse conducted a national survey for a PAC connected to chairman of the Senate Republican Conference, Senator Tom Cotton, to understand where voters actually stand on the subsidies and what moves them.

Of six policy options tested, the Republican plan came out on top.

Redirecting subsidies away from insurance companies and into Health Savings Accounts that consumers control was the most popular option we tested. It earned 60% support to just 22% opposition, a net favorability of +39 points.

Meanwhile, the Democrats' preferred approach (a clean three-year extension with no reforms) was the least popular option and the only one that failed to crack majority support, coming in at just 49%.

Support for extending subsidies collapses when voters hear the trade-offs.

Initial support for extending the ACA tax credits sits at 59%. But after being presented with the facts, support drops to just 34%.

The facts: subsidies don't actually lower what health care costs, they just shift the bill to taxpayers. There's no income cap. Families earning $400,000 can qualify.

That's a 25-point swing, and it signals real vulnerability for Democrats defending the status quo.

Voters know costs are rising. They blame insurers, not the ACA.

When asked who's most responsible for rising health care costs, voters pointed to insurance companies (29%) more than pharmaceutical companies, hospitals, or the ACA itself.

Yet despite frustration with costs, 81% of voters say they're very or somewhat satisfied with their current coverage. This debate is less about blowing up the system and more about who's footing the bill.

Methodology: Survey of 2,058 registered voters conducted online by GrayHouse, December 6–8, 2025. Margin of error ±2.2%.