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New Polling Shows NFL Pro Bowler Jay Feely Running in AZ District 1 Is Republicans' Best Hope to Win Swing Seat

  • Landon Wall
  • Nov 18, 2025
  • 3 min read

From: Landon Wall

Date: November 18th, 2025

Survey Dates: November 15-17, 2025


Earlier this month, President Trump took to Truth Social to endorse Mark Lamb for Arizona's 5th Congressional District, and also said "I also like Jay Feely very much, and would like to see him run in a different district" New GrayHouse polling shows exactly where the former Arizona Cardinals kicker would perform best: the newly open 1st Congressional District, one of Democrats' top pickup targets and one of Republicans' most critical seats to defend in 2026.


Our survey of 500 likely voters in AZ-01, conducted November 15-17 with a margin of error of ±4.4 points, tested how Feely and Arizona GOP Chair Gina Swoboda would each perform against a generic Democrat in the competitive Scottsdale and northeast Phoenix seat. Rep. David Schweikert's decision to run for governor left the district open and immediately turned it into one of the most contested House races in the country. Trump won the district with 51% in 2024 (a 3-point margin) while Democrat Ruben Gallego carried it with 52% for Senate (a 5-point margin), demonstrating the seat's ticket-splitting tendencies and making candidate quality decisive.


Feely has not announced for AZ-01, though conservative leaders in Arizona, including Turning Point USA's Tyler Bowyer have publicly floated him for the seat.


Download Toplines:


Feely Starts Tied with Generic Democrat, Swoboda Starts Down 3%

We first tested both Republican candidates without providing any information about their backgrounds, establishing a baseline on name recognition alone. Feely starts tied with a generic Democrat at 42% each, while Swoboda trails 40% to 43%.


Initial Generic Ballot Performance


Jay Feely vs. Democratic Candidate

  • Jay Feely: 42%

  • Democratic candidate: 42%

  • Undecided: 16%


Gina Swoboda vs. Democratic Candidate

  • Gina Swoboda: 40%

  • Democratic candidate: 43%

  • Undecided: 17%


After Voters Learn More About Each Candidate Feely Leads by 7%, Swoboda Trails by 6%

After voters were read biographical information, Feely climbs from 42% to 46%, opening a 7-point lead over Democrats (46% to 39%). Swoboda drops from 40% to 39% and trails by 6 points (39% to 45%).


Republican Performance After Bios


Jay Feely vs. Democratic Candidate

  • Jay Feely: 46%

  • Democratic candidate: 39%

  • Undecided: 15%


Gina Swoboda vs. Democratic Candidate

  • Gina Swoboda: 39%

  • Democratic candidate: 45%

  • Undecided: 16%



Bios Read to Respondents:


Gina Swoboda is Chair of the Arizona Republican Party, where she led Republicans to win competitive congressional races and expand legislative majorities in 2024. She served as Election Day Director of Operations for President Trump's 2020 Arizona campaign and has since become a nationally recognized leader on election integrity and voter roll transparency. Gina founded the Voter Reference Foundation to bring transparency to election systems nationwide and has served in election administration roles from local registrar to senior policy advisor for the Arizona House Elections Committee. 


Jay Feely is a 14-year NFL veteran who earned Pro Bowl honors with the Arizona Cardinals before becoming an Emmy Award-winning CBS Sports broadcaster. A political outsider who wants to bring private-sector experience to Washington, Jay settled in Arizona with his wife Rebecca and their four children. Jay served on the Gilbert Christian School Board, founded the Feely Family Foundation, and started a girls' soccer program that won a state championship. He currently serves on the boards of a defense technology company and an American manufacturing company and is running for Congress to serve his community, not to build a political career.


Favorability Ratings

Feely is the only candidate tested with positive net favorability at plus 4 points (15% favorable, 12% unfavorable, 43% never heard of him). Swoboda sits at net negative 3 points (11% favorable, 14% unfavorable). The two Democratic candidates running in AZ-1, Amish Shah and Marlene Galan-Woods, are underwater by 5 points and 6 points respectively.


District Fundamentals

Trump's job approval in AZ-01 stands at 48% approve to 51% disapprove (net negative 2 points). Among independents, 41% approve and 57% disapprove (net negative 16 points), with 53% strongly disapproving.


On country direction, 54% say wrong track compared to 41% right direction. On Arizona state direction, 53% say wrong track compared to 29% right direction. Among independents, 61% say the country is on the wrong track and 48% say Arizona is on the wrong track.


Methodology

Survey Dates: November 15-17, 2025

Sample Size: 500 likely voters in Arizona Congressional District 1

Margin of Error: ±4.4% (95% confidence interval)

Survey Method: Multi-mode design combining live interviewer calls to cell phones (40%) and landlines (10%), plus SMS text-to-web invitations (50%)


Full toplines and methodology statement downloadable at the top of this page.

 
 
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