POLITICO Features GrayHouse’s Arizona Poll
POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score featured GrayHouse’s latest Arizona statewide survey in its October 23, 2026 “Poll Position” section.
The newsletter highlighted Hobbs’s lead in the governor’s race and Norton’s lead for state treasurer. Norton was the only Republican ahead among the three races included in the published toplines.
Governor
Katie Hobbs (D): 51%
Andy Biggs (R): 45%
Attorney General
Kris Mayes (D): 50%
Warren Petersen (R): 47%
State Treasurer
Elijah Norton (R): 45%
Nick Mansour (D): 43%
How the survey was conducted
GrayHouse interviewed 550 likely Arizona voters from October 18–20, 2026, using a voter-file sample. Live telephone interviews accounted for 40% of the sample, or 220 interviews. The mode breakdown was:
Live calls to cell phones: 35% (192 interviews)
Live calls to landlines: 5% (28 interviews)
SMS text-to-web: 60% (330 interviews)
Electorate and weighting
Party registration: 40% Republican, 33% Democrat, and 27% unaffiliated or other, a seven-point Republican registration advantage in the weighted sample.
2024 presidential vote recall: 48% Donald Trump, 46% Kamala Harris, 4% someone else, and 2% who did not vote.
The survey was weighted by gender, age, race, geography, 2024 presidential vote, and other demographic and partisan characteristics. Final weights were calibrated to GrayHouse’s political engagement modeling to reflect the expected November 2026 electorate, incorporating turnout behavior alongside respondents’ stated likelihood to vote.
The survey has a stated margin of error of ±4.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
