NCPR: GrayHouse Poll Cited in Analysis of Elise Stefanik's Potential Governor Bid

Published by Champlain Valley Reporter / North Country Public Radio

By Cara Chapman

Read the full article here.

A recent independent poll conducted by GrayHouse, the polling and data analytics firm founded by Landon Wall, was cited by North Country Public Radio as part of an analysis of Representative Elise Stefanik’s growing political profile and her potential bid for governor of New York.

The GrayHouse survey found Stefanik leading potential Republican primary opponents by a wide margin, and trailing Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul by just six points in a hypothetical general election matchup. The findings helped frame a broader conversation about Stefanik’s viability statewide.

Professor Joshua Darr of Syracuse University, an expert on political strategy and polarization, told NCPR that Stefanik’s strong communication skills and her ability to unify Republicans nationally could translate well to a statewide campaign:

"She’s shown that she’s a good communicator, she has a good eye for issues and within her leadership positions she's been able to get people on board and on the same page," Darr said.

While acknowledging that New York is traditionally a challenging state for Republicans, Darr argued that gubernatorial races often behave differently than national elections:

"Governors' races are their own animal within each state," he noted, suggesting that factors like local economic concerns and candidate quality can override party loyalty.

Darr also emphasized the state’s political shifts since 2020:

"New York shifted farther right than any other state in 2024 — an almost 11-point shift," he said, pointing to a potential opening for Republicans if economic and regional issues are effectively leveraged.

In particular, Darr suggested that Stefanik’s strength Upstate — paired with even modest improvement among voters in New York City — could make the race highly competitive:

"She doesn’t have to win New York City, but she has to improve on Trump’s margins there," he explained. "She needs to run up the score Upstate and push messages that work regionally."

The article concluded that while Stefanik has not yet declared her candidacy, the political environment — combined with strong polling among Republican voters — suggests she would be a formidable contender should she enter the race.

You can read the full article from North Country Public Radio here.