Kentucky's 4th District G.O.P. Primary: Gallrein set to defeat Massie
- May 18
- 2 min read
A new GrayHouse survey of likely Republican primary voters in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District shows Ed Gallrein leading Thomas Massie 51 to 44, with 5 percent undecided.
N: 435 likely GOP primary voters Field Dates: May 16 to 17, 2026 Margin of Error: +/- 4.7% at 95% confidence Mode: Mixed-mode, 70% SMS text-to-web and 30% live interviewer calls to mobile phones |
Primary Ballot
Candidate | Overall |
Ed Gallrein | 51% |
Thomas Massie | 44% |
Undecided | 5% |
Download full toplines:
MAGA vs. Traditional
The race tracks the MAGA/Traditional Republican fault line cleanly. Self-identified MAGA voters, 60 percent of the electorate, back Gallrein 59 to 33. Traditional Republicans, the smaller faction at 36 percent, are the one bloc giving Massie a clear edge, 58 to 40. Massie is the anti-Trump candidate in the race, and the loyalty math reflects that.
Primary Ballot by Party Faction
Candidate | MAGA / America First (60%) | Traditional Republican (36%) |
Ed Gallrein | 59% | 40% |
Thomas Massie | 33% | 58% |
Undecided | 8% | 1% |
The shape of the electorate
We modeled a higher-turnout primary electorate than past Kentucky off-year primaries, which brings in a slightly younger, slightly less habituated set of primary voters. Massie's strength is concentrated in that lower-propensity end. Seniors and four-of-four primary voters swing decisively toward Gallrein.
Modeled Primary Electorate
Group | Share of Electorate |
GENDER | |
Male | 51% |
Female | 49% |
AGE | |
18 to 49 | 28% |
50 to 64 | 31% |
65 and over | 41% |
PRIMARY VOTING HISTORY (LAST 4 PRIMARIES) | |
0 of 4 | 15% |
1 or 2 of 4 | 41% |
3 of 4 | 22% |
4 of 4 | 21% |
REGION | |
Northern KY core (Boone, Kenton, Campbell) | 47% |
Louisville / central exurban | 33% |
Rural / outer counties | 21% |
Methodology
Interview Dates: May 16 to 17, 2026 Target Population: Kentucky CD-4 Likely GOP Primary Voters Sampling Method: The survey was administered using a mixed-mode design combining SMS text-to-web invitations (70%) and live interviewer calls to mobile phones (30%). The sample was drawn from a voter file and related contact records, enriched where available with appended consumer data. Recruitment was monitored against quota and coverage targets to maintain balanced coverage across age, gender, and education. Weighting: The sample was weighted using iterative proportional fitting (raking) adjusted for age, gender, and education, together with additional proprietary turnout and political-engagement calibrations tailored to the target electorate. Weighting benchmarks were derived from voter-file data, recent election returns, public demographic benchmarks, and internal modeling. Number of Respondents: 435 Margin of Error: +/- 4.7% (95% CI) for the full sample Survey Modes: 70% SMS text-to-web invitations (n=305), 30% live interviewer calls to mobile phones (n=130) |
