Senator Cotton Has Commanding Lead in Arkansas Senate Race
- Mar 5
- 2 min read
Summary
GrayHouse surveyed 550 likely general election voters in Arkansas from February 7 to 9, 2026 (MoE +/-4.2%), and the results are clear: Senator Tom Cotton is in a commanding position to win reelection, and Hallie Shoffner is badly out of step with Arkansas voters. Cotton leads by 22 points before voters know anything about his opponent — and that margin only grows once they do.
TOPLINES AND METHODOLOGY
Initial Ballot: Cotton +22
In a head-to-head matchup, Cotton leads Shoffner 58% to 36% among likely general election voters.
Candidate | Support |
Senator Tom Cotton (R) | 58% |
Hallie Shoffner (D) | 36% |
Don't know | 7% |
After Voters Learn About Shoffner: Cotton +26
When respondents were provided biographical information about Hallie Shoffner, including her policy positions and record, Cotton's lead expands. His support rises to 60% while Shoffner falls to 34%.
Candidate | Post-Info Support |
Senator Tom Cotton (R) | 60% |
Hallie Shoffner (D) | 34% |
Don't know | 6% |
The movement is telling: the more Arkansas voters learn about Shoffner, the less they support her. She cannot grow her coalition in a state that is fundamentally at odds with her politics.
Shoffner Favorability: -30 Net
After exposure to biographical information, Shoffner's favorability cratered. Nearly two-thirds of voters view her unfavorably, producing a net favorability of -30.
Shoffner Favorability | Result |
Very favorable | 17% |
Somewhat favorable | 16% |
Somewhat unfavorable | 6% |
Very unfavorable | 56% |
Net Favorability | -30 |
Immigration
On immigration, Arkansas voters are clear. 84% support deporting immigrants with criminal records (net +71), and 67% support deporting all illegal immigrants (net +34). These positions align directly with Cotton's record and stand in sharp contrast to Shoffner's.
Bottom Line
Senator Tom Cotton is set to win reelection by commanding margins. Cotton leads 60-34 after voters learn who his opponent really is and 64% view her unfavorably.
Methodology
GrayHouse surveyed 550 likely Arkansas general election voters February 7 to 9, 2026. The survey used a mixed-mode design: 60% SMS text-to-web, 40% live telephone interviews. Margin of error +/-4.2% at 95% confidence. Sample weighted for age, gender, education, race/ethnicity, geography, party self-identification, and recalled 2024 presidential vote. The sponsor was America One Policies.
