Sabato's Crystal Ball: Watch for Upsets in Open Seats

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In their initial 2026 gubernatorial race ratings, Sabato's Crystal Ball discusses the competitive landscape across various states, including New York. The article notes that while New York is rated as "Likely Democratic," incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul's consistent unpopularity could make the race more competitive than expected. Potential Republican challengers like Rep. Elise Stefanik and Rep. Mike Lawler are mentioned, with Stefanik's prominence and close ties to former President Donald Trump highlighted as factors that could influence the race. The article references a recent GrayHouse poll showing Stefanik leading the GOP primary field, underscoring the significance of early polling in shaping the narrative of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.